The by-election which captivated the whole country is over. Time for all parties to go back to the drawing board and learn. Here is my view on the outcome for the key stake holders of the this city.
MQM:
An absolute moral booster for MQM. From the triggering point of these elections (the resignation of Sardar Nabeel Gabol), to the chain of events following that, it appeared that the tide is against MQM at their home ground and some were already wondering if MQM would be able to manage control of their home constituency. Most importantly MQM were never seen at such a loggerhead with establishment since 1998-99. The planners of this drama went a bit too overboard. To the extend that it appeared as a witch hunt against MQM. At a time when PAC and TTP could operate with impunity in Karachi, establishment seemed to had circled MQM (or its rogue elements) as the enemy number 1 of the city. MQM was smart enough to capitalize on "pushed against the wall" sentiment and for perhaps the first time since mid 90s we saw a totally linguistic campaign run by them. It is history now. But what has MQM got to do now.
The tougher times are to come now. The alleged target killers caught from Nine Zero are to be prosecuted, Imran Farooq case seems to be heading towards a conclusion, Aamir Khan's "confessions" are to be "leaked" to media and Saulat Mirza element is still fresh. Last but not the least the money laundering investigation appears to be reaching the final stage. While the linguistic and "cornered tiger" element worked for MQM this time, there is absolutely no guarantee it would in future too. People want to see a different MQM and this is perhaps the best opportunity for them to relaunch themselves. It is important that the "generation-next" of MQM leadership should be brought forward. Faces, educated people of urban sindh can associate with. People like Faisal Subzwari, Ali Raza Abidi, Erum Farooqi and Saman Jafri.
MQM's salvation lies in local governments. While with the blessings of CJP, it appears that our so called democratic forces have been forced to hold local elections in September, MQM must use its power in center and sindh to ensure the system being brought in is actually powerful and has little dependence on the provincial government. I am very confident that if this by election were held in middle class areas like Gulshan, North Nazimabad and PECHS, with the kind of unprecedented security arrangements, MQM's margin of victory would have been lower, much lower in fact. It has got to reestablish that educated middle class link with the populace. A tough task but for MQM they have "been there, done that". By-election gave them an opportunity to reconnect to its voter, let see if these contacts continue or not.
MQM's biggest strength over the decades has been its loyal set of workers. However this proved to be their biggest weakness too. We saw an example of that at Karimabad yesterday. Though they were taking out their frustration of the hammering they got in the media and through law enforcers but the event left a bad taste in the mouth even for MQM's silent supporters. Hopefully, MQM will figure out some way of channeling the energy of its workers in a manner which is more productive for the society.
PTI:
I consider PTI as a great opportunity lost for Pakistan. The comment may be premature but PTI certainly isn't progressing from the highs it saw back in early 2013. I have this very strong feeling that Imran Khan is surrounded by a coterie of yes-men who speak what Khan wants to listen. NA 246 is a wonderful case in point. While PTI supporters may bring in as many mathematical theorem and statistical tools to prove that it is in fact MQM which has suffered due to reduction in votes but deep inside every sane supporter there will be a feeling of regret and slight embarrassment.
How could the party got its calculations so wrong. Forget winning, they are nowhere close. Imran must question his advisers in party (or may be establishment) about the assumptions they created while ignoring the demographics of NA 246, that too at the time when MQM always had the very powerful linguistic card at its disposal. Could it be that the people of the area considered Imran Khan's aggressive i-am-here-to-liberate-you tone as an invasion by an "outsider". Even from his cricketing days Karachites have looked at IK with slight suspicion, which has been supported by some anecdotal references. So when he ran a campaign which had just one agenda "bash MQM and Altaf Hussain as much and as harsh as you can", it backfired. Educated Karachites might have their issues with MQM but they dont want any lessons from an "outsider" [as may be the case for one' wife. One may not like her but also doesnt appreciates others talking about her ;)]. Karachites would have punished MQM in their own way but they don't want any lessons from PTI. This is what they missed. I dont recall a single speech by PTI stalwarts in their Karachi rally in which they proposed some development plans for FB Area. Did they even know they everyday problem of Karachites other than oft repeated bhaata khori and target killing? Right from the word go their speeches were about bashing MQM and AH. Their own failures (generator tripping) was blamed by their spokesperson Ms Mazari on MQM. They should come out of this stupid mindset that PTI has an overwhelming support of educated urdu speakers. Support is there but not overwhelming. Do they know this is backfiring? do they?
PTI has to develop a new sales pitch for Karachi. They should analyze the origins of why MQM is able to use its linguistic card so well. It starts from the feeling of insecurity. What is PTI doing to cater this? Karachites feel that they do not get their fair share of resources from federal and Sindh govt. While Lahore gets Metros, Karachi gets Chingchis, Punjab gets Solar Power, Karachi is getting environmentally disastrous nuclear and coal based plants. We do not even get cricket matches here now for Zimbabwe tour :). May be PTI's thinking about Karachi originates from the broadbased countrywide thinking that MQM is the sole reason for Karachi's suffering. Did they ever try to look at it as a part of solution? PTI Karachi needs new faces. Visiting Javed Nihari in a Land Cruiser wont help. and yes 246 has better eateries than Javed Nihari, did anyone tell them?
Jamat-e-Islami
Writing on the wall is there now. This is not mid 80s or Americans haven't invaded any of our neighbors. Jamat has lost touch with the city and this has coincided with a wave of arrogance Siraj Ul Haq has brought to the party. To be very frank i found it hard to differentiate between JI's pitch and PTI's pitch for NA 246 as both focused on bashing MQM and AH. They made further mockery of themselves by not accepting the results. JI Karachi needs some fresh faces with a modern tone. If PTI was not in sync with on ground realities, JI didn't even know where the ground was. Their over estimation of their supposed popularity has turned them into a laughing stock. Not often you see a party claiming to be victors before the elections end up getting even their guarantee money forfeited (zamanat zabt). I think JI's time in Karachi is over. Only an ISIS style take over of the country can make them popular again as they are a perfect fit with them.
Media:
The biggest loser (yea even bigger than JI) in this whole month long circus has been the media. A hoopla was created around the elections as if it is some constituency which changes hand every elections. OK it makes sense, since media runs on ratings but there was a clear bias in the coverage. Barring a few anchors and analysts which i can count on fingers, mostly agreed that this would be a tight contest. The funniest element of all this has been that security analysts, who mostly talk of war on terror and military matters were discussing the constituency politics of FB Area. Being a Karachite i felt great that people who may not have visited in the past 5 to 6 years suddenly became the greatest of the well wishers of the city. But did they genuinely cared about the city or was this the bias speaking? Playing to the audience up country, a bubble was created that we are about to see the biggest of the biggest upset in the political history of Pakistan. Naturally, the bubble got burst as soon as the first trends started to appear during the late afternoon of Thursday. One could see a lot of humiliated and to some extend depressed faces on TV that night. Some actually appeared angry but this should be a good learning for them. Do not give "expert opinion" on the matters you do not know of. Karachi has a peculiar mix of population. It is the most heterogeneous city of the country, proudly calling itself "Mini Pakistan". Therefore the politics is also complex. I think one factor of this general bias is that the media fraternity wanted MQM to weaken in Karachi. A number of journalists complain that they get a lot of interference of MQM leaders.
Now that the by-election is over i hope this love affair that our analysts, anchors and experts have developed for Karachi wouldn't wane away. Karachi has a serious set of problems and law and order is just one of them. Hopefully they will push MQM and the highly incompetent Sindh government to resolve those. This is the biggest favor they can do to the city which gives them the biggest chunk of revenue.
MQM:
An absolute moral booster for MQM. From the triggering point of these elections (the resignation of Sardar Nabeel Gabol), to the chain of events following that, it appeared that the tide is against MQM at their home ground and some were already wondering if MQM would be able to manage control of their home constituency. Most importantly MQM were never seen at such a loggerhead with establishment since 1998-99. The planners of this drama went a bit too overboard. To the extend that it appeared as a witch hunt against MQM. At a time when PAC and TTP could operate with impunity in Karachi, establishment seemed to had circled MQM (or its rogue elements) as the enemy number 1 of the city. MQM was smart enough to capitalize on "pushed against the wall" sentiment and for perhaps the first time since mid 90s we saw a totally linguistic campaign run by them. It is history now. But what has MQM got to do now.
The tougher times are to come now. The alleged target killers caught from Nine Zero are to be prosecuted, Imran Farooq case seems to be heading towards a conclusion, Aamir Khan's "confessions" are to be "leaked" to media and Saulat Mirza element is still fresh. Last but not the least the money laundering investigation appears to be reaching the final stage. While the linguistic and "cornered tiger" element worked for MQM this time, there is absolutely no guarantee it would in future too. People want to see a different MQM and this is perhaps the best opportunity for them to relaunch themselves. It is important that the "generation-next" of MQM leadership should be brought forward. Faces, educated people of urban sindh can associate with. People like Faisal Subzwari, Ali Raza Abidi, Erum Farooqi and Saman Jafri.
MQM's salvation lies in local governments. While with the blessings of CJP, it appears that our so called democratic forces have been forced to hold local elections in September, MQM must use its power in center and sindh to ensure the system being brought in is actually powerful and has little dependence on the provincial government. I am very confident that if this by election were held in middle class areas like Gulshan, North Nazimabad and PECHS, with the kind of unprecedented security arrangements, MQM's margin of victory would have been lower, much lower in fact. It has got to reestablish that educated middle class link with the populace. A tough task but for MQM they have "been there, done that". By-election gave them an opportunity to reconnect to its voter, let see if these contacts continue or not.
MQM's biggest strength over the decades has been its loyal set of workers. However this proved to be their biggest weakness too. We saw an example of that at Karimabad yesterday. Though they were taking out their frustration of the hammering they got in the media and through law enforcers but the event left a bad taste in the mouth even for MQM's silent supporters. Hopefully, MQM will figure out some way of channeling the energy of its workers in a manner which is more productive for the society.
PTI:
I consider PTI as a great opportunity lost for Pakistan. The comment may be premature but PTI certainly isn't progressing from the highs it saw back in early 2013. I have this very strong feeling that Imran Khan is surrounded by a coterie of yes-men who speak what Khan wants to listen. NA 246 is a wonderful case in point. While PTI supporters may bring in as many mathematical theorem and statistical tools to prove that it is in fact MQM which has suffered due to reduction in votes but deep inside every sane supporter there will be a feeling of regret and slight embarrassment.
How could the party got its calculations so wrong. Forget winning, they are nowhere close. Imran must question his advisers in party (or may be establishment) about the assumptions they created while ignoring the demographics of NA 246, that too at the time when MQM always had the very powerful linguistic card at its disposal. Could it be that the people of the area considered Imran Khan's aggressive i-am-here-to-liberate-you tone as an invasion by an "outsider". Even from his cricketing days Karachites have looked at IK with slight suspicion, which has been supported by some anecdotal references. So when he ran a campaign which had just one agenda "bash MQM and Altaf Hussain as much and as harsh as you can", it backfired. Educated Karachites might have their issues with MQM but they dont want any lessons from an "outsider" [as may be the case for one' wife. One may not like her but also doesnt appreciates others talking about her ;)]. Karachites would have punished MQM in their own way but they don't want any lessons from PTI. This is what they missed. I dont recall a single speech by PTI stalwarts in their Karachi rally in which they proposed some development plans for FB Area. Did they even know they everyday problem of Karachites other than oft repeated bhaata khori and target killing? Right from the word go their speeches were about bashing MQM and AH. Their own failures (generator tripping) was blamed by their spokesperson Ms Mazari on MQM. They should come out of this stupid mindset that PTI has an overwhelming support of educated urdu speakers. Support is there but not overwhelming. Do they know this is backfiring? do they?
PTI has to develop a new sales pitch for Karachi. They should analyze the origins of why MQM is able to use its linguistic card so well. It starts from the feeling of insecurity. What is PTI doing to cater this? Karachites feel that they do not get their fair share of resources from federal and Sindh govt. While Lahore gets Metros, Karachi gets Chingchis, Punjab gets Solar Power, Karachi is getting environmentally disastrous nuclear and coal based plants. We do not even get cricket matches here now for Zimbabwe tour :). May be PTI's thinking about Karachi originates from the broadbased countrywide thinking that MQM is the sole reason for Karachi's suffering. Did they ever try to look at it as a part of solution? PTI Karachi needs new faces. Visiting Javed Nihari in a Land Cruiser wont help. and yes 246 has better eateries than Javed Nihari, did anyone tell them?
Jamat-e-Islami
Writing on the wall is there now. This is not mid 80s or Americans haven't invaded any of our neighbors. Jamat has lost touch with the city and this has coincided with a wave of arrogance Siraj Ul Haq has brought to the party. To be very frank i found it hard to differentiate between JI's pitch and PTI's pitch for NA 246 as both focused on bashing MQM and AH. They made further mockery of themselves by not accepting the results. JI Karachi needs some fresh faces with a modern tone. If PTI was not in sync with on ground realities, JI didn't even know where the ground was. Their over estimation of their supposed popularity has turned them into a laughing stock. Not often you see a party claiming to be victors before the elections end up getting even their guarantee money forfeited (zamanat zabt). I think JI's time in Karachi is over. Only an ISIS style take over of the country can make them popular again as they are a perfect fit with them.
Media:
The biggest loser (yea even bigger than JI) in this whole month long circus has been the media. A hoopla was created around the elections as if it is some constituency which changes hand every elections. OK it makes sense, since media runs on ratings but there was a clear bias in the coverage. Barring a few anchors and analysts which i can count on fingers, mostly agreed that this would be a tight contest. The funniest element of all this has been that security analysts, who mostly talk of war on terror and military matters were discussing the constituency politics of FB Area. Being a Karachite i felt great that people who may not have visited in the past 5 to 6 years suddenly became the greatest of the well wishers of the city. But did they genuinely cared about the city or was this the bias speaking? Playing to the audience up country, a bubble was created that we are about to see the biggest of the biggest upset in the political history of Pakistan. Naturally, the bubble got burst as soon as the first trends started to appear during the late afternoon of Thursday. One could see a lot of humiliated and to some extend depressed faces on TV that night. Some actually appeared angry but this should be a good learning for them. Do not give "expert opinion" on the matters you do not know of. Karachi has a peculiar mix of population. It is the most heterogeneous city of the country, proudly calling itself "Mini Pakistan". Therefore the politics is also complex. I think one factor of this general bias is that the media fraternity wanted MQM to weaken in Karachi. A number of journalists complain that they get a lot of interference of MQM leaders.
Now that the by-election is over i hope this love affair that our analysts, anchors and experts have developed for Karachi wouldn't wane away. Karachi has a serious set of problems and law and order is just one of them. Hopefully they will push MQM and the highly incompetent Sindh government to resolve those. This is the biggest favor they can do to the city which gives them the biggest chunk of revenue.
