NA 246 Some After Thoughts

The by-election which captivated the whole country is over. Time for all parties to go back to the drawing board and learn. Here is my view on the outcome for the key stake holders of the this city.

MQM:

An absolute moral booster for MQM. From the triggering point of these elections (the resignation of Sardar Nabeel Gabol), to the chain of events following that, it appeared that the tide is against MQM at their home ground and some were already wondering if MQM would be able to manage control of their home constituency. Most importantly MQM were never seen at such a loggerhead with establishment since 1998-99. The planners of this drama went a bit too overboard. To the extend that it appeared as a witch hunt against MQM. At a time when PAC and TTP could operate with impunity in Karachi, establishment seemed to had circled MQM (or its rogue elements) as the enemy number 1 of the city. MQM was smart enough to capitalize on "pushed against the wall" sentiment and for perhaps the first time since mid 90s we saw a totally linguistic campaign run by them. It is history now. But what has MQM got to do now.

The tougher times are to come now. The alleged target killers caught from Nine Zero are to be prosecuted, Imran Farooq case seems to be heading towards a conclusion, Aamir Khan's "confessions" are to be "leaked" to media and Saulat Mirza element is still fresh. Last but not the least the money laundering investigation appears to be reaching the final stage. While the linguistic and "cornered tiger" element worked for MQM this time, there is absolutely no guarantee it would in future too. People want to see a different MQM and this is perhaps the best opportunity for them to relaunch themselves. It is important that the "generation-next" of MQM leadership should be brought forward. Faces, educated people of urban sindh can associate with. People like Faisal Subzwari, Ali Raza Abidi, Erum Farooqi and Saman Jafri.

MQM's salvation lies in local governments. While with the blessings of CJP, it appears that our so called democratic forces have been forced to hold local elections in September, MQM must use its power in center and sindh to ensure the system being brought in is actually powerful and has little dependence on the provincial government. I am very confident that if this by election were held in middle class areas like Gulshan, North Nazimabad and PECHS, with the kind of unprecedented security arrangements, MQM's margin of victory would have been lower, much lower in fact. It has got to reestablish that educated middle class link with the populace. A tough task but for MQM they have "been there, done that". By-election gave them an opportunity to reconnect to its voter, let see if these contacts continue or not.

MQM's biggest strength over the decades has been its loyal set of workers. However this proved to be their biggest weakness too. We saw an example of that at Karimabad yesterday. Though they were taking out their frustration of the hammering they got in the media and through law enforcers but the event left a bad taste in the mouth even for MQM's silent supporters. Hopefully, MQM will figure out some way of channeling the energy of its workers in a manner which is more productive for the society.

PTI:  

I consider PTI as a great opportunity lost for Pakistan. The comment may be premature but PTI certainly isn't progressing from the highs it saw back in early 2013. I have this very strong feeling that Imran Khan is surrounded by a coterie of yes-men who speak what Khan wants to listen. NA 246 is a wonderful case in point. While PTI supporters may bring in as many mathematical theorem and statistical tools to prove that it is in fact MQM which has suffered due to reduction in votes but deep inside every sane supporter there will be a feeling of regret and slight embarrassment.

How could the party got its calculations so wrong. Forget winning, they are nowhere close. Imran must question his advisers in party (or may be establishment) about the assumptions they created while ignoring the demographics of NA 246, that too at the time when MQM always had the very powerful linguistic card at its disposal. Could it be that the people of the area considered Imran Khan's aggressive i-am-here-to-liberate-you tone as an invasion by an "outsider". Even from his cricketing days Karachites have looked at IK with slight suspicion, which has been supported by some anecdotal references. So when he ran a campaign which had just one agenda "bash MQM and Altaf Hussain as much and as harsh as you can", it backfired. Educated Karachites might have their issues with MQM but they dont want any lessons from an "outsider" [as may be the case for one' wife. One may not like her but also doesnt appreciates others  talking about her ;)]. Karachites would have punished MQM in their own way but they don't want any lessons from PTI. This is what they missed. I dont recall a single speech by PTI stalwarts in their Karachi rally in which they proposed some development plans for FB Area. Did they even know they everyday problem of Karachites other than oft repeated bhaata khori and target killing? Right from the word go their speeches were about bashing MQM and AH. Their own failures (generator tripping) was blamed by their spokesperson Ms Mazari on MQM. They should come out of this stupid mindset that PTI has an overwhelming support of educated urdu speakers. Support is there but not overwhelming. Do they know this is backfiring? do they?    

PTI has to develop a new sales pitch for Karachi. They should analyze the origins of why MQM is able to use its linguistic card so well. It starts from the feeling of insecurity. What is PTI doing to cater this? Karachites feel that they do not get their fair share of resources from federal and Sindh govt. While Lahore gets Metros, Karachi gets Chingchis, Punjab gets Solar Power, Karachi is getting environmentally disastrous nuclear and coal based plants. We do not even get cricket matches here now for Zimbabwe tour :). May be PTI's thinking about Karachi originates from the broadbased countrywide thinking that MQM is the sole reason for Karachi's suffering. Did they ever try to look at it as a part of solution? PTI Karachi needs new faces. Visiting Javed Nihari in a Land Cruiser wont help. and yes 246 has better eateries than Javed Nihari, did anyone tell them?

Jamat-e-Islami

Writing on the wall is there now. This is not mid 80s or Americans haven't invaded any of our neighbors. Jamat has lost touch with the city and this has coincided with a wave of arrogance Siraj Ul Haq has brought to the party. To be very frank i found it hard to differentiate between JI's pitch and PTI's pitch for NA 246 as both focused on bashing MQM and AH. They made further mockery of themselves by not accepting the results. JI Karachi needs some fresh faces with a modern tone. If PTI was not in sync with on ground realities, JI didn't even know where the ground was. Their over estimation of their supposed popularity has turned them into a laughing stock. Not often you see a party claiming to be victors before the elections end up getting even their guarantee money forfeited (zamanat zabt). I think JI's time in Karachi is over. Only an ISIS style take over of the country can make them popular again as they are a perfect fit with them.

Media:

The biggest loser (yea even bigger than JI) in this whole month long circus has been the media. A hoopla was created around the elections as if it is some constituency which changes hand every elections. OK it makes sense, since media runs on ratings but there was a clear bias in the coverage. Barring a few anchors and analysts which i can count on fingers, mostly agreed that this would be a tight contest. The funniest element of all this has been that security analysts, who mostly talk of war on terror and military matters were discussing the constituency politics of FB Area. Being a Karachite i felt great that people who may not have visited in the past 5 to 6 years suddenly became the greatest of the well wishers of the city. But did they genuinely cared about the city or was this the bias speaking? Playing to the audience up country, a bubble was created that we are about to see the biggest of the biggest upset in the political history of Pakistan. Naturally, the bubble got burst as soon as the first trends started to appear during the late afternoon of Thursday. One could see a lot of humiliated and to some extend depressed faces on TV that night. Some actually appeared angry but this should be a good learning for them. Do not give "expert opinion" on the matters you do not know of. Karachi has a peculiar mix of population. It is the most heterogeneous city of the country, proudly calling itself "Mini Pakistan". Therefore the politics is also complex. I think one factor of this general bias is that the media fraternity wanted MQM to weaken in Karachi. A number of journalists complain that they get a lot of interference of MQM leaders.

Now that the by-election is over i hope this love affair that our analysts, anchors and experts have developed for Karachi wouldn't wane away. Karachi has a serious set of problems and law and order is just one of them. Hopefully they will push MQM and the highly incompetent Sindh government to resolve those. This is the biggest favor they can do to the city which gives them the biggest chunk of revenue. 

Our Meeting with General Musharraf

Since putting up my picture with General Musharraf last Friday a number of you have been asking about what was discussed and how was the overall mood of the meeting. So here I am finally putting aside my habitual lethargy and procrastination to write few lines on the experience.

Meeting Setup:

Like many good things in my life this meeting came through my radio contacts. One of my very regular listeners, Colonel Fazal Abbas sb offered me the opportunity to set an appointment with General Musharraf during an informal lunch I was having with him in mid June. My response was an immediate yes. I was asked to wait and wait I did. Within ten days I received a call confirming the time of the meeting and day. I was asked to be present outside the colony where General sb is residing at Zamzama Karachi. Hearing this, my wife insisted to be a part of the meeting. I knew she has a soft corner for General sb in her heart but I saw a dedicated fan in her that evening. Like every good husband I couldn’t say no to her and eventually managed to take her along albeit her security clearance came less than an hour before the meeting. Luckily she was there on time.

Note: Pls don’t ask me to setup the meeting with General sb…I am in no way in any position to set those up J

It wasn’t a one on one meeting. There were 5 individuals other than me and Tasmia. One of them was the President of a local Bank

First Impression of the house:

 General sb is currently living in the a nice spacious house within the General’s Society at Zamzama. The society had its own security while there were few Rangers personnel giving duty outside his house. We were greeted warmly by the staff at the main gate. We did pass through the security gate and were asked to hand over our cell phones (politely). I was allowed to carry my camera inside though.

The house  building itself though not very big was pretty well organized and decorated. The first things you would note were the pictures hanging on the wall of the living room with notable leaders of the world.

We were asked to sit in the drawing room and were served with some refreshments. We had to wait for a few minutes before we heard the familiar voice coming from the background. Tasmia looked at me and smiled suggesting “we have heard this voice before haven’t we?”.

So finally General entered drawing room and first thing which was visible was his grown waistline. Surely he wasn’t working out as much I read he is used to. He welcomed each one individually. This was supposed to be a very informal meeting and the good thing was that there were no ground rules set. General sb appeared in good spirit and fresh. Not a typical 70+ year old man we know in our society.

Discussions:

Bulk of the opening minutes were taken by the President of that banking introducing himself and how he was distantly related to him through many distant contacts. The intro was so long that I knew my number would never come and I had to get General talk about the current state of affairs in Pakistan. Which is why we were there after all. Getting an opportunity I broke the news to General sb about Sri Lanka taking away on-arrival visa facility from Pakistanis. He was shocked to hear that and said

“ab ye time aa gaya hai kay Sri Lanka hamaray saath ye kar raha hai”

Sri Lanka naturally holds great importance in General sb’s life and he believes he is still widely respected there. He narrated an incident during their civil war when their soldiers were trapped somewhere near the Jaffna peninsula and were under attack from LTTE. Then President Chandrika Kumaratunga called General Musharraf for help and Pakistan was prompt to send as much help as possible in the form of arms, ammunition and technical expertise to help the Sri Lankan brothers.

Iftikhar Chaudhary:

Any meeting with General Musharraf could never be complete without the mentioning of Iftikhar Chaudhary. He joked about the appointment of Arsalan Iftikhar at the Vice Chairman of Baluchistan BOI and how a national treasure like Reqo Diq would be under him now for exploitation.

“ye dekho chor ko chowkidaari pe laga diya”

He highlighted how Chaudhary sabotaged the whole reqo diq deal GOP signed with a consortium of the Canadian and Chilean company for the mining of copper and goal reserves. His regret was overwhelming when he estimated how many millions of dollars worth of exports were to come in 2012 if Tythian Gold and Antofagasta were allowed to carry out their job. He said that he met the president of Tythian Gold in London after the annulment of the deal by Chaudhary and how much disappointed he was on what was going on in Pakistan.

General sb did shed some light on the Pakistan Steel deal and shared the plan of what Al Tawarqi (the winning party) was supposed to do with Pak Steel in terms of further investment and exports. I asked General sb if there was any discussion between the then Judiciary and himself before the announcement of the decision. General sb smiled and me and said that now I have asked him he would share the details. The details (which I will not share here) were shocking on ground of how much aligned General sb, Iftikhar Chaudhary and the Attorney General were on the pro-privatization judgement which was supposed to come.  However the ultimate judgement was totally the opposite. General sb hinted the reason why this would have happened and he would share this in the sequel of his book “In the Line of Fire”.

The Book Sequel:

The sequel of his book is very much on the cards in fact if appeared that most of the book has already been written. He smiled and said the text would be completed once the judgement of the ongoing trails especially the article 6 case is out.              

During the meeting we didn’t specifically talk about the on going cases perhaps due to the shortage of time.

His Political Future:

I asked General sb on where he sees himself in the politics now considering how he has been singled out by the biased judiciary in his previous political endeavour. His response was not very specific. He did mention that the current political system isn’t helping the country out. People have tried and tested PPP which failed to deliver and now PMLN isn’t faring any better. As expected he didn’t have much hope from Imran Khan either. He said that no matter how many elections you have in Pakistan we will eventually end up having the same people getting elected. He believed that country desperately need some form of an interim setup for an extended period of time with a solid backing of the military. Does General sb see tacit role for himself in any such setup…I would say yes. At least his body language suggests so. He clearly said that the days of military coup in Pakistan are now over. He nodded his approval on the Tahir Ul Qadri’s movement.

Religious Extremism:

General sb dedicated a lot of time in explaining how extremism can be combated. In a typical Musharraf like style of giving solution, he divided the war against extremism in various stages with actions like Zarb e Azab as the first one. He believed that till the time the madrassas have been incorporated in the modern schooling system we cant win the war. He proudly mentioned about some of the strict steps he took against madrassa by amending their curriculum and making them more mainstream. Alas most of this has been reversed and madrassas have growth has been unabated since he left.

I think the meeting was supposed to last for an hour but it continued for an hour and a half before him chief of staff requested us to finish the discussion. There of course were many questions unanswered but I did ask General sb if he is in touch with Shaukat Aziz and Altaf bhai. About Shaukat Aziz he said he they talked often when he was in London and Dubai but haven’t talked since he is in Pakistan. About Altaf Bhai he said “oh yes I am”. J

General sb came to his door to see us all off. He encouraged my wife to start working rather than staying at home!

And there it was…that’s the longest I have written in a while. One question that I really forgot asking General sb was “Which team is he supporting in the FIFA world cup?” J   

Waar Review

Waar

Score - 8/10

The movie presents an overly simply description of the causes of terrorism in pakistan and how best we can counter it. The fact that this was the most anticipated movie in recent decades the movie was bound to get an amazing opening and as the numbers for the past two days' collections suggest this movie will easily surpass Bol's overall collections to be the biggest hit of Pakistan.

In a nutshell this movie sums up a popular narrative that India is exploiting our inner weaknesses (the religious extremism) to cause havoc in Pakistan and we can save a lot of lifes if we break this nexus. It is this india factor which has already made this movie extremely unpopular in a certain segment of the society and those advocating stronger ties with india even from a position of weakness. You would hardly find them criticizing India on the anti pakistan rhetoric their movies have created but since its a pakistani movie, they would consider it their duty to bash freely. The movie also forms a positive image of armed forces which would also not go down well with them. You cant change few things, dont you? :)

Positives: Technically a strong movie. Excellent cinematography and action sequences. Except for Taliban leaders with fake pushto accent (poor casting) the acting was decent enough. Shan looked awesome, act well too as expected. Ayesha khan has surely looked better than she does on TV but that fake british accent was a bit too much to handle. Shamoon hasnt spoken much but was worthy of the negative role he did. Ali Azmat was OK. Always found Meesha Shafi the singer and actor as over rated. Hamza Ali Abbasi is a great actor in making...wow what a powerful speech he gave before the panultimate sequence.

Overall the movie has an aura of patriotism which you do not associate with pakistani media anymore.

Negatives: A bit weak on story and screenplay. I think the role of how religion is used to crop up violent extremism should have been more elaborated. Blaming everything on India was a bit too much. The movie has Adult rating due to excessive blood shown on screen and graphic execution scenes. But this stuff is mostly shown on our news channels with PG rating.

90% of the movie is in english and hence understood that the producers plan to release it in orther countries. However would the powerful indian lobby in Anglophile countries let this happen remains to be seen.

Overall Waar was a great one time watch. Not as great as i expected it to be but still it has raised the bar higher for pakistani movies. More positives than negative. After MHSA and Zinda Bhaag we can very much say that Pakistani movies have made a comeback, an unexpectedly strong one! Go and enjoy Waar! Great effort Bilal Lashari and team!